A new TIFA survey has revealed that a majority of Nairobi’s ride-hailing customers could shift to alternative forms of transport if fares rise significantly, raising concerns over the impact of proposed minimum fare regulations on consumers and drivers.
The survey released on Thursday, August 20 found that 60 per cent of ride-hailing users in Nairobi would consider switching to other modes of transport, with 44 per cent saying they would turn to matatus if fares increased substantially.
Only 18 per cent said they would continue using ride-hailing services at their current rate following a major fare increase, while 11 per cent would reduce how frequently they use the services.
Another 11 per cent said they would seek cheaper ride-hailing options. Seven per cent would increase their use of boda bodas, while four per cent would resort to walking. Three per cent would rely more on private vehicles, and two per cent would abandon ride-hailing services completely.
The findings could have significant consequences for more than 400,000 drivers who depend on the ride-hailing industry for their livelihoods.
The survey comes as the government moves to introduce a new pricing framework for conventional and digital taxi services following a directive issued by President William Ruto in May.
Transport Cabinet Secretary Davis Chirchir has already published the Draft National Transport and Safety Authority (Transport Network Company, Owners, Drivers and Passengers) (Amendment) Regulations 2026, which seek to establish a national pricing framework for taxi services.
Under the proposed regulations, authorities would assess the costs incurred by drivers and operators before determining minimum viable fares. The framework would cover base fares, distance-based charges, time rates, minimum trip charges and additional surcharges.
Transport network companies would also be required to guarantee drivers and motorcycle riders a minimum payment for every trip, separate from commissions, taxes, levies, fees and other deductions imposed by the platforms.
The proposed minimum compensation would apply irrespective of the distance travelled or duration of a trip and would remain applicable even where platforms use dynamic pricing, promotional discounts or other pricing models.
However, TIFA’s findings indicate strong resistance to the proposed minimum fare policy, with 59 per cent of respondents opposing it. The opposition appears to be driven largely by concerns over affordability rather than resistance to measures aimed at improving the earnings of drivers.
“The findings suggest that while passengers recognise the importance of improving driver earnings, they are reluctant to support a policy that transfers the cost directly to consumers through higher fares,” TIFA said.
The survey further showed the pressure facing Nairobi households, with 81 per cent of respondents saying they were very or somewhat concerned about rising prices.
For 62 per cent, the rising cost of living — including expenses such as transport, fuel, food and education — was identified as their biggest household challenge.
On how ride-hailing fares should be determined, 63 per cent of respondents favoured competition between companies, while 33 per cent supported government regulation.
The findings highlight the delicate balance facing policymakers as they seek to improve earnings for drivers without making ride-hailing services too expensive for passengers.
The survey was conducted among 733 Nairobi residents aged 18 and above between July 17 and 21, 2026, through face-to-face household interviews.
