The Interior Ministry has identified 18 counties as high-risk areas ahead of the anticipated El Niño rains in 2026, raising concerns over flooding, disease outbreaks and food insecurity.
According to a notice seen by Vantage Ke on Monday, August 10, Nairobi is among the areas placed under heightened watch, with the ministry highlighting urban flooding, blocked drainage systems and overstretched infrastructure as key risks facing the capital.
In the Coastal Region, Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu, Mombasa and Kwale counties have also been classified as vulnerable due to their exposure to heavy rainfall and rising sea levels.
The ministry anticipates that the coastal counties could experience flooding, storm surges, coastal erosion, infrastructure damage and displacement as rainfall intensifies.
In the Lake Basin region, Kisumu, Busia, Siaya, Homa Bay and Migori have been placed under close monitoring ahead of the rainy season.
According to the Interior Ministry, the counties face a combination of flooding, landslides, disease outbreaks, waterborne illnesses and potential displacement of residents.
Beyond Nairobi, Mombasa and Kisumu have been identified as urban centres likely to face similar pressures, particularly from blocked drainage systems that could disrupt normal activities.
The ministry warned that service interruptions and pressure on infrastructure could affect the three cities significantly once the rains reach their peak in the coming months.
Meanwhile, drought-affected counties including Turkana, Baringo, West Pokot and Narok in the Rift Valley face the difficult prospect of dealing with both drought and flooding risks.
Communities in the largely pastoral region could face livestock losses, landslides and worsening food insecurity as weather conditions deteriorate.
Garissa, Wajir and Mandera in North Eastern Kenya complete the list, with drought, water shortages and inadequate pasture already putting pressure on livelihoods.
Rift Valley Fever threat
Separately, the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) warned on August 10 that East Africa could face another major threat alongside the expected strain on land and infrastructure — an increased risk of Rift Valley fever (RVF).
Kenya has been identified as among the countries facing heightened RVF risks as El Niño-driven flooding creates favourable conditions for mosquito breeding and the spread of the virus among livestock, posing a threat to human health, food security and livelihoods.
The risk extends to Burundi, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan, Uganda and the United Republic of Tanzania, where regional flooding and the movement of livestock could accelerate cross-border transmission.
The situation could further complicate disease surveillance while placing additional pressure on already stretched veterinary and public health systems.
“These forecasting climate conditions are expected to create favourable ecological conditions for Rift Valley fever (RVF) transmission. This poses an imminent danger to the countries including Burundi, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan, Uganda, and the United Republic of Tanzania,” ICPAC stated.
ICPAC cautioned that failure to establish coordinated early-warning and response mechanisms could result in significant livestock losses, disrupted trade and deeper poverty.
The agency further warned that heavy rains could damage critical infrastructure and make it harder for emergency teams to reach affected communities and deliver aid.
