Milk prices could rise further across Kenya amid declining formal-sector milk supplies, rising production costs and growing concerns that dairy farmers are abandoning the sector.
The Consumers Federation of Kenya (COFEK) has sounded the alarm over the situation, calling on the government to take urgent action within seven days to restore milk supplies and stabilise prices.
In a statement issued on Monday, August 31, COFEK cited data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) showing that formal-sector milk intake fell by five per cent from 88.89 million litres in May 2026 to 84.44 million litres in June.
The June intake was also 6.4 per cent lower than the 90.24 million litres recorded during the same month in 2025, pointing to increasing pressure on the country's milk supply.
COFEK noted that February recorded the lowest formal milk intake so far this year at 74.43 million litres, although cumulative intake between January and June stood at 513.32 million litres, compared to 516.34 million litres during the same period in 2025.
The federation said the official figures did not support claims that milk supplies were expanding, arguing that consumers needed accurate information on the state of the dairy sector.
"This official data does not support claims in some public commentary as attributed to the President’s Economic Advisor Dr David Ndii, that milk supply is currently expanding," COFEK stated.
The impact of the supply constraints has already begun to emerge in Nairobi, where the federation reported that some retailers were rationing milk purchases. At some outlets, the price of fresh milk has increased from Ksh70 to Ksh80 per litre, while branded packaged milk has become harder to find on supermarket shelves, raising concerns that consumers could face further price increases if supply constraints persist, COFEK added.
The federation attributed the deteriorating supply situation partly to challenges affecting smallholder dairy farmers, who account for roughly 80 per cent of Kenya's milk production.
According to COFEK, some farmers have reported daily milk yields falling from between seven and nine litres to four and five litres per cow.
The decline has been linked to delayed rains that have affected pasture, as well as a sharp increase in the cost of commercial feeds. COFEK estimated that feed prices have risen by about 45 per cent, putting additional pressure on farmers already struggling with production costs.
The Kenya Dairy Board has also acknowledged concerns that farmers could be exiting dairy production and selling their cows because they can no longer afford to feed them.
COFEK has blamed government agencies for failing to adequately prepare for the current situation, arguing that the shortage was foreseeable and could have been partly avoided. "This shortage was foreseeable and, in material part, avoidable," the federation stated.
It claimed that New KCC and the Kenya Dairy Board failed to adequately account for the milk surplus recorded in 2025 and that milk powder from the surplus was not incorporated into strategic food reserves as anticipated.
COFEK argues that having such reserves in place could have cushioned consumers against the current supply shock.
The federation has now given the Ministry of Agriculture seven days to publish a transparent recovery plan containing monthly milk-intake targets and immediately activate emergency fodder and feed subsidies for affected dairy-producing counties.
It has also demanded that the Kenya Dairy Board publicly account for the 2025 milk surplus and disclose the status of milk-powder reserves.
The federation wants a permanent surplus-absorption mechanism and strategic milk reserves established to protect the market from future supply disruptions.
COFEK is further calling on the National Treasury to waive import duty and VAT on yellow maize, soya and other key dairy-feed inputs to lower production costs and prevent more farmers from abandoning dairy farming.
The federation's demands come months after Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Mutahi Kagwe warned against the sale of unregulated raw milk, describing milk hawking as a public health threat and urging consumers to buy traceable and tested milk.
COFEK has also called for active monitoring of retail milk prices and fortnightly public updates on milk intake, prices and reserve levels.
It warned that it would pursue further advocacy and legal action if the government fails to implement the demanded measures within seven days.
