Kenya is expected to experience a wetter-than-usual October, with the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA) forecasting above-average rainfall in several parts of the country.
The weather agency has also cautioned that the increased rainfall could bring heavy downpours, raising the risk of flooding, landslides and other weather-related hazards.
Rainfall is expected to start at different times depending on the region. Nairobi, Kiambu, Meru, Embu, Machakos, Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado and other parts of central and eastern Kenya are expected to receive the rains from the second to third week of October.
However, rainfall has already been continuing from September in coastal areas, including Mombasa, Kwale, Kilifi, Lamu and the Tana Delta.
KMSA forecasts above-average rainfall in Makueni, Kajiado, Machakos, Nairobi, Kiambu, Murang'a, Kirinyaga, Embu, Tharaka-Nithi, Meru, Nyandarua and Nyeri, among other counties.
Above-average rainfall is also expected in Mombasa, Kwale, Kilifi and Lamu, as well as parts of Taita Taveta, Tana River, Garissa, Wajir and Mandera.
Counties including Kisumu, Kakamega, Kisii, Bungoma, Nakuru, Kericho, Bomet, Nandi, Uasin Gishu and Turkana are expected to record near-average to above-average rainfall.
Flooding Risk
KMSA warned that periods of heavy rainfall could increase the risk of flash floods, riverine flooding and landslides in different parts of the country.
“Enhanced rainfall is likely to increase the probability of weather-related hazards such as flash floods, riverine flooding, landslides, and localized infrastructural damage,” KMSA said in its October forecast.
The agency noted that flooding, waterlogging and erosion could damage roads and bridges, with rural access roads considered particularly vulnerable following prolonged rainfall.
Urban areas could also face traffic disruptions if drainage systems are overwhelmed by heavy downpours.
The October rains will mark the beginning of the October-November-December (OND) short-rains season, which KMSA expects to bring above-average rainfall to much of Kenya.
Advisory to Farmers
The anticipated rains are expected to benefit farmers by improving soil moisture, supporting land preparation and planting, regenerating pasture and increasing water availability for livestock.
However, KMSA cautioned that excessive rainfall could also result in waterlogging, crop diseases and challenges in transporting agricultural produce.
The weather agency further warned of potential health risks associated with increased rainfall.
Stagnant water could provide breeding grounds for mosquitoes and increase the risk of malaria, while flooding and poor drainage could contribute to the spread of water-borne diseases.
Despite the wetter conditions expected in October, temperatures are projected to remain above average across the country.
Maximum temperatures could reach 39°C in parts of Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo.
