The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has warned that the El Niño weather phenomenon could reach record levels in December, raising concerns over heavy rainfall and flooding in Kenya and other parts of the world.
In its latest weather update issued on Thursday, October 8, WMO said El Niño was rapidly strengthening and was expected to intensify further before reaching its peak in December 2026.
"El Niño will continue to intensify ahead of its forecast peak in December. It is likely to bring above-average temperatures to much of the globe and shift rainfall patterns,” WMO said.
The UN weather agency said the projected El Niño could rank among the strongest recorded since observations began in 1950.
WMO also placed the likelihood of the weather phenomenon persisting through February 2027 at nearly 100 per cent, meaning its effects could continue being felt across different regions for several months.
“El Niño is firmly established and strengthening rapidly. WMO forecasts indicate a near-100 per cent likelihood that it will persist through February 2027, potentially being one of the strongest since at least 1950,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.
According to the agency, El Niño is expected to disrupt normal rainfall patterns globally, with some regions likely to experience unusually heavy rains and flooding while others could face drought conditions.
The phenomenon is also expected to drive temperatures above normal levels across large parts of the world.
The warning comes as Kenya steps up preparations for the anticipated effects of El Niño rains. The Ministry of Interior recently activated a national response under the National Contingency Plan as authorities moved to strengthen the country's preparedness.
The government has started developing evacuation procedures and mapping access routes, while security agencies coordinate measures to respond to emergencies linked to heavy rainfall and flooding.
The Kenya Coast Guard Service (KCGS), Kenya Defence Forces (KDF), National Police Service (NPS), Kenya Red Cross Society and National Youth Service (NYS) are expected to participate in search and rescue operations should conditions deteriorate.
The latest forecast follows earlier projections that El Niño conditions would become more pronounced from late September and early October. However, the anticipated weather pattern has not been clearly observed across all parts of Kenya.
Weather conditions have continued to vary across the country, with some regions recording limited rainfall while others remain relatively dry, adding to uncertainty over how the phenomenon will affect different areas.
